Will AI replace Actuaries?

Analyze statistical data, such as mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates and construct probability tables to forecast risk and liability for payment of future benefits. The percentage shown is a task-exposure model, not a prediction of certain job loss.

O*NET 30.3 · 15-2011.00 · modeled exposure, not guaranteed job loss

MODERATE TASK EXPOSURE

51%

Estimated share of representative tasks exposed to current AI capabilities.

Category#

Tech

Engineering & Product

Modeled pay midpoint$

$63,500/yr

Directional estimate — verify locally

Time until impact⌁

2–4 years

Earliest 2027 · widespread 2029–2031

Task-level replaceability ⓘ

Representative tasks ranked from highest to lowest AI exposure.

◇Ascertain premium rates required and cash reserves and liabilities necessary to ensure payment of future benefits.61%

⚙Collaborate with programmers, underwriters, accounts, claims experts, and senior management to help companies develop plans for new lines of business or improvements to existing business.51%

▥Analyze statistical information to estimate mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates.40%

✦System accountability and architecture judgment17%

✦Handling ambiguous requirements and trade-offs13%

Impact timeline ⓘ

How AI assistance may move from early support to wider adoption.

2027Next2029–2031

Early impactAI begins supporting ascertain premium rates required and cash reserves and liabilities necessary to ensure payment of future benefits..

Role reshapingRepeatable tasks become faster and more automated.

Wider adoptionThe role centers more on system accountability and architecture judgment.

2–4 yearsdirectional confidence window

HOW AI CHANGES THIS JOBtyping the logic in plain English

01>Start with the real work done by Actuaries.

02>AI can help with: Ascertain premium rates required and cash reserves and liabilities necessary to ensure payment of future benefits.

03>If a task is repetitive and easy to check, AI pressure goes up.

04>But a person is still needed for: System accountability and architecture judgment.

05>Likely result: AI is more likely to change this job than remove it.

06>Important: 51% is estimated task exposure—not a 51% chance of losing the job.

What AI can do

Ascertain premium rates required and cash reserves and liabilities necessary to ensure payment of future benefits.MEDIUM

Collaborate with programmers, underwriters, accounts, claims experts, and senior management to help companies develop plans for new lines of business or improvements to existing business.MEDIUM

Analyze statistical information to estimate mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates.LOW MATCH

How estimates work →

Your human moat

◆

System accountability and architecture judgment

MEDIUM-HIGH

Combined with handling ambiguous requirements and trade-offs, this keeps a human in the loop.

Strength8.1

Similar-role comparison

RoleRisk

Actuaries51%

Computer Systems Analysts51%

Software Developers50%

Operations Research Analysts52%

Why this score?

✓The model evaluates 3 representative core tasks.

✓The role mixes repeatable work with human judgment.

✓Occupation and task language comes from O*NET 30.3.

✓The strongest human advantage is system accountability and architecture judgment.

Research basis

O*NET 30.3 occupation tasks plus the ILO 2025 exposure framework. Scores are directional estimates.

Read ILO research →

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Will AI replace Actuaries?

System accountability and architecture judgment

Why this score?

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