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Will AI replace Plumber?

Like most skilled trades, this work happens in physically variable environments that current robotics cannot navigate reliably, and it carries real safety and property liability that requires a licensed human.

Role analysis · modeled exposure, not guaranteed job loss
LOW TASK EXPOSURE
28%
Estimated share of representative tasks exposed to current AI capabilities.
Task automation shareⓘ
28%Automatable
Automatable28%
Augmentable40%
Hard to automate32%
Based on analysis of representative responsibilities and current AI capability maturity.
Category#
Trades & Physical
Field & Physical
Base salary (US)$
$60,000/yr
National average for this role
Time until impact⌁
6–10+ years
Earliest 2032 · widespread 2036+
Task-level replaceability ⓘ
Representative tasks ranked from highest to lowest AI exposure.
◇Assist diagnosis from photos or described symptoms38%
✦Physical work in constrained, unpredictable spaces24%
✦Licensed liability for code-compliant installation20%
Impact timeline ⓘ
How AI assistance may move from early support to wider adoption.
2032Next2036+
Light supportAI provides limited help with assist diagnosis from photos or described symptoms.
AugmentationTools improve productivity without owning outcomes.
Human-ledCore work stays anchored in physical work in constrained, unpredictable spaces.
6–10+ yearsdirectional confidence window
HOW AI CHANGES THIS JOBtyping the logic in plain English
01>Start with the real work done by Plumber.
02>AI can help with: Assist diagnosis from photos or described symptoms.
03>If a task is repetitive and easy to check, AI pressure goes up.
04>But a person is still needed for: Physical work in constrained, unpredictable spaces.
05>Likely result: AI mostly acts as a helper while the core job stays human-led.
06>Important: 28% is estimated task exposure—not a 28% chance of losing the job.
What AI can do
Assist diagnosis from photos or described symptomsLOW MATCH
How estimates work →
Your human moat
◆

Physical work in constrained, unpredictable spaces

HIGH MOAT

Combined with licensed liability for code-compliant installation, this keeps a human in the loop.

Strength9.0
Similar-role comparison
RoleRisk
Plumber28%
Agricultural Workers, All Other28%
Pest Control Workers29%
Forest and Conservation Workers29%
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Why this score?

✓The model evaluates 1 representative core tasks.
✓The core work depends on presence, dexterity, or accountability.
✓The role profile is mapped to current AI capabilities.
✓The strongest human advantage is physical work in constrained, unpredictable spaces.
Research basis

O*NET 30.3 occupation tasks plus the ILO 2025 exposure framework. Scores are directional estimates.

Read ILO research →
Data: O*NET 30.3 · Model framework: ILO 2025About O*NETShare report
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Agricultural Workers, All Other · 28% exposurePest Control Workers · 29% exposureForest and Conservation Workers · 29% exposure